Kenya Faces 2027 Election with Outdated Electoral Boundaries, IEBC Warns
Kenya is heading toward the 2027 general election with outdated electoral boundaries, as the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has confirmed it cannot complete a boundary review in time. The delimitation process, which adjusts constituency and ward boundaries to reflect population changes, is a complex and politically sensitive task that could reshape political representation by merging, splitting, or abolishing constituencies.
During a session with the National Assembly’s Constitution Implementation Oversight Committee, IEBC chairperson Erastus Ethekon described the boundary review as a technically demanding and emotionally charged process requiring two to three years to complete. With less than two years until the election, the timeline is unfeasible. Ethekon urged Parliament to take legislative or constitutional action to avert a potential constitutional crisis, emphasizing the urgency of addressing the issue.
The Kenyan Constitution mandates boundary reviews every eight to twelve years, with the process concluding at least one year before a general election. The last review occurred in 2012, meaning the minimum eight-year period lapsed in 2020, and the twelve-year maximum expired in March 2024. However, the IEBC operated without commissioners for over two years, rendering the review impossible until the commission was reconstituted in 2024.
To address uncertainties, the IEBC sought legal clarity by consulting the Attorney-General and filing a reference with the Supreme Court in July 2024. The commission inquired whether it could conduct a review without commissioners, if the constitutional timeline could be extended, and under what conditions. On September 5, 2025, the Supreme Court dismissed the case, ruling that only a fully constituted commission could bring such matters before the court. IEBC legal affairs director Chrispine Owiye explained the court’s decision to the committee, underscoring the procedural constraints.
Ethekon informed MPs that the IEBC will convene within a month to produce a final report on whether a boundary review remains feasible before 2027. He stressed the need for Parliament to consider legislative or constitutional solutions to resolve the deadlock.
The delimitation process is fraught with political challenges. In 2012, 27 constituencies, including Voi, Wundanyi, Mwatate, Galole, Bura, Isiolo South, Samburu East, Laisamis, North Horr, Saku, Kilome, Mukurweini, Mbeere North, Mathioya, Ndaragwa, Budalang’i, Vihiga, Othaya, Kangema, Marakwet East, Keiyo North, Tetu, Mogotio, Lamu East, Lamu West, and Mvita, fell below the population threshold but were protected from abolition after parliamentary intervention. Population growth since then, based on the 2019 census, indicates that at least 40 constituencies now fail to meet the threshold, increasing the risk of abolition if a review proceeds.
Former Ndaragwa MP Jeremiah Kioni highlighted the political difficulties of abolishing constituencies without careful planning. He suggested increasing the number of constituencies and harmonizing larger ones to protect those at risk, a move that would require constitutional amendments and could spark further disputes.
The IEBC also faces challenges with population data. The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics has not confirmed whether the 2019 census can legally guide the review, and the 2009 census was previously deemed inaccurate by the High Court, with the ruling under appeal. Without reliable data, the IEBC cannot equitably assess constituency thresholds or allocate voters.
Article 89 of the Constitution caps constituencies at 290 and requires periodic boundary reviews, considering factors like population distribution, geography, community interests, public input, and communication networks. Ward boundaries must also be revised, adding further complexity to the process.
In parallel, the IEBC is intensifying voter registration efforts for 2027, targeting 6.3 million new voters to add to the existing 22.1 million. Continuous registration is underway across all constituencies and Huduma Centres. Commission CEO Hussein Marjan noted that the previous method of using Voting Age Population data for setting targets was unreliable. The IEBC has adopted the Voter Eligibility Population method, leveraging National ID and passport data to establish realistic registration goals.
Despite these efforts, the unresolved boundary review means Kenya is likely to hold another election under outdated electoral lines, potentially compromising representation and fairness. Ethekon called on Parliament and possibly the Supreme Court to act swiftly, warning that further delays could exacerbate the issue. With the election approaching, the unresolved delimitation exercise remains a critical challenge for Kenya’s democratic process.