Quote from Lawyer on July 3, 2025, 9:01 am

The United States Agency for International Development (USAID), a cornerstone of global humanitarian aid for over six decades, officially ceased operations on July 1, 2025, triggering widespread concern about the future of millions who relied on its programs. The closure, driven by a strategic shift in U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration, has left critical health, agriculture, and community development initiatives in disarray, particularly in developing nations like Kenya. Experts warn that the abrupt halt of USAID’s programs could lead to 14 million deaths by 2030, including 4.5 million children under five, as the world grapples with the fallout of this unprecedented decision.

Founded in 1961 by President John F. Kennedy, USAID was established to promote global stability through humanitarian aid and development programs. Over its 64-year history, the agency has been credited with saving approximately 92 million lives, particularly through initiatives targeting HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other preventable diseases. In Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia, USAID’s efforts provided food, healthcare, and vaccines to millions, transforming communities and fostering economic growth in recipient countries.

In Kenya, USAID’s contributions were monumental. The agency’s President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) supported over 20 million people globally, including millions of Kenyans living with HIV. In 2024 alone, Kenya received 83.5 billion Kenyan shillings from USAID, with the health sector absorbing the largest share at 39.5 billion shillings. These funds supported critical programs, including antiretroviral drug distribution, vaccine campaigns, and training for healthcare providers. Beyond health, USAID’s Feed the Future initiative bolstered agricultural productivity in 27 Kenyan counties, supporting 42,000 small and medium enterprises and farmers while facilitating millions in loans and private sector investment.

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), another USAID-funded program, played a vital role in Kenya by providing data-driven forecasts to predict and mitigate food insecurity. By collaborating with the National Drought Management Authority and other partners, FEWS NET enabled timely responses to potential famines, saving countless lives. However, with USAID’s closure, this critical system went offline in January 2025, leaving Kenya and other nations vulnerable to food crises.

The decision to dismantle USAID came swiftly after the start of President Donald Trump’s second term in January 2025. An executive order issued on January 20 froze all foreign aid for 90 days, initiating a review that culminated in the agency’s permanent closure. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that foreign assistance would now be managed through the State Department under an “America First” approach, prioritizing U.S. national interests over traditional humanitarian goals. Rubio defended the move, arguing that USAID’s programs were inefficient and that many recipient countries failed to align with U.S. interests at the United Nations, often siding with rivals like China.

The closure was spearheaded by the Department of Government Efficiency, led by billionaire Elon Musk, who was tasked with reducing the federal workforce. USAID’s 13,000 employees, 94 percent of whom were terminated, received mass termination emails, and thousands of programs were abruptly halted. Critics, including former Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush, condemned the decision as a catastrophic mistake. In a video farewell to USAID staff, Obama described the closure as a tragedy, emphasizing the agency’s role in saving lives and fostering global partnerships. Bush echoed these sentiments, highlighting USAID’s bipartisan legacy.

Kenya, heavily reliant on USAID funding, is already feeling the consequences of the agency’s closure. In February 2025, a 90-day suspension of foreign aid led to the closure of 150 clinics and the loss of 35,000 jobs, primarily in the health sector. The suspension disrupted PEPFAR, leaving 72,000 HIV patients in Kenya without access to essential antiretroviral drugs. Community-led programs, such as the PODIs model in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which provided peer support and free medication, also collapsed, underscoring the ripple effects across Africa.

The agricultural sector faces similar challenges. USAID’s Feed the Future and Kenya Agricultural Value Chain Enterprises projects, which supported dairy, maize, and horticulture in counties like Bungoma, Meru, and Taita Taveta, have been suspended. With the main planting season approaching, farmers fear reduced yields and food insecurity, threatening Kenya’s agricultural transformation. The loss of the Strengthening Agricultural Water Innovations (STAWI) project, which improved water management in drought-prone areas, further exacerbates these concerns.

Kenya’s Ministry of Health has assured citizens that HIV medication stocks will last six months, but the long-term outlook is uncertain. National Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi announced plans to redirect portions of the development budget to sustain critical programs, but Kenya’s reliance on foreign aid (472 billion shillings from the U.S. over the past five years) highlights the challenges of filling the funding gap. Civil society groups are urging the government to increase domestic funding for health and agriculture, but the scale of the shortfall poses immense pressure.

A recent study published in The Lancet paints a dire picture of the global consequences of USAID’s closure. The report estimates that the cessation of USAID’s programs could result in 14 million additional deaths by 2030, with 4.5 million of those being children under five. The study likens the impact to a global pandemic or major armed conflict, noting that the burden will disproportionately affect vulnerable populations in low- and middle-income countries. Diseases like HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, and diarrheal illnesses, previously mitigated by USAID funding, are expected to surge, reversing decades of progress.

Humanitarian organizations worldwide have condemned the closure. Avril Benoît, Chief Executive Officer of Doctors Without Borders, described the aid freeze as devastating, particularly for HIV patients who rely on consistent access to medication. The United Nations reported that funding cuts have reduced food rations in Kenyan refugee camps to their lowest levels, leaving hundreds of thousands at risk of starvation. Other countries, including the UK, France, and Germany, have followed the U.S. by reducing their own aid budgets, compounding the global humanitarian crisis.

The Trump administration’s new approach emphasizes trade, opportunity, and investment over traditional aid. Rubio outlined a vision of targeted, time-limited assistance for nations demonstrating self-reliance and alignment with U.S. interests. The State Department’s new America First organization will oversee remaining programs, with approximately 1,000 initiatives continuing under stricter oversight. However, aid groups warn that the rapid dismantling of USAID has already caused irreparable damage, with no clear plan to replace its expertise or infrastructure.

Former USAID officials, including Susan Reichle and Andrew Natsios, expressed skepticism about the State Department’s ability to manage complex humanitarian programs. Reichle highlighted the loss of experienced staff who built trust with global partners, while Natsios noted that even State Department officials lack the expertise to replicate USAID’s work. Atul Gawande, who led USAID’s global health efforts during the Biden administration, predicted that the new approach would have a fraction of USAID’s impact.

As the world adjusts to the absence of USAID, uncertainty looms over the fate of millions who depended on its support. In Kenya, the government faces mounting pressure to secure alternative funding from international partners and the private sector. However, the scale of USAID’s contributions (43 percent of global government donations to humanitarian aid in 2023) makes this a daunting task. The closure has also sparked legal challenges, with a U.S. judge temporarily halting furloughs for USAID employees in February 2025, though this ruling offers little hope for the agency’s long-term revival.

The end of USAID marks a pivotal shift in global humanitarian efforts, with profound implications for developing nations like Kenya. As families face disruptions in healthcare, food security, and agricultural support, the international community must grapple with the challenge of filling the void left by one of the world’s largest aid agencies. Without swift and coordinated action, the projected loss of millions of lives could become a tragic reality.