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Post Reply: Sudan’s Devastating War Fueled by Foreign Interests, Regional Diplomacy Offers Hope

<blockquote><div class="quotetitle">Quote from <a class="profile-link highlight-moderator" href="https://lawguide.co.ke/understanding-law/legal-forum/profile/lawyer/">Lawyer</a> on July 1, 2025, 6:02 am</div><div id="pl-6709"  class="panel-layout" ><div id="pg-6709-0"  class="panel-grid panel-no-style" ><div id="pgc-6709-0-0"  class="panel-grid-cell"  data-weight="1" ><div id="panel-6709-0-0-0" class="so-panel widget widget_sow-editor panel-first-child panel-last-child" data-index="0" data-style="{&quot;background_image_attachment&quot;:false,&quot;background_display&quot;:&quot;tile&quot;,&quot;background_image_size&quot;:&quot;full&quot;,&quot;background_image_opacity&quot;:&quot;100&quot;,&quot;border_thickness&quot;:&quot;1px&quot;}" ><div
			
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	<p dir="ltr" data-pm-slice="1 1 []">Since April 2023, Sudan has been engulfed in a brutal civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti. The conflict has unleashed one of the world’s worst humanitarian and displacement crises, with devastating consequences for millions of Sudanese. The war has claimed over 150,000 lives, displaced more than 14 million people, and left Khartoum, once a bustling capital, in ruins. Experts warn that foreign interference is prolonging the conflict, and only robust regional diplomacy, led by the African Union (AU), can pave the way for peace.</p>
<p dir="ltr">The conflict’s toll on Sudan’s population is staggering. Over 11 million people are internally displaced, with an additional 3 million fleeing to neighboring countries such as Chad, Ethiopia, and South Sudan. The war has decimated critical sectors like agriculture and industry, causing an estimated $15 billion in economic losses, equivalent to nearly half of Sudan’s GDP. More than 90% of Sudan’s 19 million school-aged children lack access to formal education, deepening social inequalities and dimming future prospects. Severe food insecurity affects millions, with the United Nations labeling the situation as the world’s largest hunger crisis. Health services are on the brink of collapse, with over 20 hospitals shuttered due to damage, military occupation, or resource shortages.</p>
<p dir="ltr">The fighting, rooted in long-standing ethnic, political, and economic tensions, has turned cities like Khartoum and El-Fasher into battlegrounds. Street battles, drone strikes, and aerial bombardments have left civilians trapped, with dwindling supplies of food, water, and medicine. In Darfur, the RSF’s siege of El-Fasher has raised fears of renewed ethnic violence, echoing the atrocities of the early 2000s. The assassination of West Darfur’s governor in June 2023, allegedly by RSF militants, marked a grim escalation, with accusations of genocidal attacks resurfacing.</p>
<p dir="ltr">The war’s complexity is amplified by the involvement of over ten countries across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, turning Sudan into a proxy battleground for competing geopolitical interests. Saudi Arabia and Egypt are reported to support the SAF, with Egypt citing historical ties and Saudi Arabia hosting peace talks in Jeddah. Conversely, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is alleged to back the RSF, supplying sophisticated drones and leveraging Sudan’s resources, including gold, livestock, and agricultural land, to advance its economic and logistical interests in the region. Ethiopia and Eritrea are also said to support the RSF, while Chad has been accused of facilitating arms transfers to the paramilitary group. Russia, Iran, Turkey, and Ukraine have been linked to providing diplomatic or military support to the SAF, further entangling the conflict.</p>
<p dir="ltr">This web of foreign involvement has frustrated peace efforts, as external actors prioritize strategic gains over neutrality. The UAE’s growing influence in African conflicts, from the Sahel to the Horn of Africa, has drawn particular scrutiny. Analysts argue that Abu Dhabi’s support for the RSF is driven by access to Sudan’s seaports and mineral wealth, exacerbating the war’s intensity. Meanwhile, the international response, including from the United States and the European Union, has been criticized as inadequate, with global attention diverted to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.</p>
<p dir="ltr">Amid the chaos, experts emphasize that regional diplomacy, spearheaded by the African Union, offers the best chance for resolution. The AU’s legitimacy as a continental body positions it to lead mediation efforts and enforce ceasefire agreements. Proposals include leveraging the expertise of African leaders like Kenya’s William Ruto, Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and elder statesmen such as Thabo Mbeki and Olusegun Obasanjo to address the conflict’s root causes: poverty, inequality, political exclusion, and economic marginalization.</p>
<p dir="ltr">The AU’s High-Level Panel on Sudan, chaired by Mohamed Ibn Chambas, has held preparatory meetings to outline principles for an intra-Sudanese political dialogue. However, boycotts by key groups, including the civilian coalition Taqaddum, have hindered progress. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), supported by Saudi Arabia and the U.S., has also struggled to secure lasting ceasefires, with General al-Burhan initially resisting Kenya’s mediation role due to perceived biases. Recent diplomatic engagements, including al-Burhan’s visits to Kenya and Ethiopia, signal a potential shift toward broader regional cooperation.</p>
<p dir="ltr">Despite these efforts, significant obstacles remain. The SAF and RSF are locked in a strategic stalemate, with neither side capable of achieving a decisive military victory. The RSF controls much of Khartoum, while the SAF holds Port Sudan, a critical hub for humanitarian aid. Ceasefires, such as the U.S.-brokered 72-hour truce in April 2023, have repeatedly collapsed, with both sides accusing each other of violations. The RSF’s recent alliance with rebel groups in the Nuba Mountains and its push toward Ethiopia’s border further complicate the battlefield dynamics.</p>
<p dir="ltr">Moreover, the involvement of tribal militias and former rebels risks escalating the conflict into a broader regional crisis. In Darfur, coalitions like the Joint Darfur Forces, allied with the SAF, are defending key cities, but tensions with the army are growing. The specter of Sudan’s partition, particularly in the Nile regions, looms large as ethnic and regional rifts deepen.</p>
<p dir="ltr">To break the cycle of violence, international actors must prioritize neutrality and focus on building Sudan’s capacity for self-governance. Financial support for electoral systems, civic education, and public institutions is critical to fostering democracy and the rule of law. The Sudanese people, who have long suffered under military rule, must lead the effort to establish sustainable governance, with external assistance limited to humanitarian and developmental aid.</p>
<p dir="ltr">The United Nations, through Secretary-General António Guterres, has called for an immediate end to hostilities, emphasizing that the conflict cannot be resolved on the battlefield. The G7 foreign ministers have also pledged to deepen diplomatic efforts, including through initiatives like the London Sudan Conference, to address the crisis. However, without coordinated pressure on foreign actors to cease military support, peace remains elusive.</p>
<p dir="ltr">While the situation in Sudan is dire, the bleakness of the crisis may yet spur action. Mediators, including Turkey and the AU, are urged to present a clear vision for post-war governance that includes civilian representation and addresses the interests of both the SAF and RSF. Though unpalatable, pragmatic negotiations with the warring factions may be necessary to halt the fighting. The Sudanese people’s resilience, coupled with robust regional diplomacy, offers a faint hope for ending the war and rebuilding a nation on the brink of collapse.</p>
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